Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Joe Kent defeated Herrera Beutler in the primary. The larger the presidential partys deficit on the generic ballot and the more seats it is defending, the more seats it tends to lose. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. The danger for Democrats is that these races end up Dear Readers: We are pleased to feature an article written by Lucca Ruggieri, a student at Great Valley High School in Malvern, Pennsylvania who interned with us over the summer. In 2020, Republicans won 26 of the 27 seats rated as Toss Up by POLITICO. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. The Senate, of course, is split down the middle with Democrats in the majority by virtue of holding the tie-breaking vote in the person of Vice President Kamala Harris. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. The table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines in the 2022 election cycle. All rights reserved. See how each partys forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the House have changed over time. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Incumbents filed to run in the newly created Florida's 28th and Texas' 27th Congressional Districts. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a good chance to keep control of the Senate. House 2022 Live Election Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast? When not including blank votes, Rice received 56% of the vote. GOP set to take the Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. Alaska. Notice any bugs or missing polls? [42] As of June 9, 2022, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. The original filing deadline was set for March 11, 2022. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. -- So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Find out how all this works in our. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. In 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . [43][44][45][46] The table below lists target districts and incumbents leading up to the 2022 elections. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. 26th February 2023. Subscriptions are available for $4.95 a month or 34.95 a year that provide subscribers with exclusive access to more than 20 stories per week on upcoming elections, consumer confidence, and issues that affect us all. In addition, as mentioned earlier, the margin of error for the Senate model is relatively large, leaving room for a range of possible outcomes from a GOP gain of two-to-three seats to a Democratic gain of four-to-five seats. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. Ahead of the Quebec election on Oct. 3, Global News has profiled all 125 ridings in the province so you can find your riding, learn more about the local . Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome. The U.S. House incumbents listed in the table below announced their candidacy for the same congressional district for the 2022 U.S. House elections. We use numbers to expressuncertainty. Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. External Relations: Moira Delaney Hannah Nelson Caroline Presnell Based on the Senate results, a one-point increase or decrease in the generic ballot margin for the presidents party would be expected to produce a swing of about 0.2 seats and every additional seat defended by the presidents party would be expected to produce a net loss of more than 0.8 seats. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. [52] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. -- Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. Prof. Funmilayo Odukoya, who is the INEC . MONTREAL, Que. RCP Senate Map Race Changes. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. Each partys chances of winning every House seat. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Primary elections, however, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. The party gained a net of nine districts. -- Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball editors Kyle Kondik and J. Current Sabato's Crystal Ball 2022 House forecast. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Miles Coleman, The House: GOP Hits 218 in Ratings as Battle Rages Across Big Playing Field, Recent Midterm History: More Complicated Than You Think, Following the Money: What Outside Spending Tells Us About the Race for the House, Lessons from the Past: What 1978 and 1982 Tell Us About 2022, The Seats-in-Trouble Forecasts of the 2022 Midterm Congressional Elections, Forecasting 2022 Using the Fundamentals: The Structural and Structure X Models. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Senate, House, and Governor Election results also available at ABCNews.com Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. [59][60], On April 26, 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau released its post-2020 census apportionment counts. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. U.S. House races in which more than one incumbent ran, non-voting delegate seats that were up for election in 2022, districts targeted by national campaign committees, newly created seats following the 2020 census, Fundraising figures for party campaign committees, important dates and deadlines for the 2022 election cycle, Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results, Delaware's At-Large Congressional District, Massachusetts' 1st Congressional District, Massachusetts' 2nd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 3rd Congressional District, Massachusetts' 4th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 5th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 6th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 7th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 8th Congressional District, Massachusetts' 9th Congressional District, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 1st Congressional District, North Carolina's 10th Congressional District, North Carolina's 11th Congressional District, North Carolina's 12th Congressional District, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District, North Carolina's 14th Congressional District, North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, North Carolina's 4th Congressional District, North Carolina's 5th Congressional District, North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, North Carolina's 7th Congressional District, North Carolina's 8th Congressional District, North Carolina's 9th Congressional District, North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 11th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 12th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 13th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 14th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 15th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 5th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 6th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District, Pennsylvania's 9th Congressional District, Rhode Island's 1st Congressional District, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 1st Congressional District, South Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, South Carolina's 5th Congressional District, South Carolina's 6th Congressional District, South Carolina's 7th Congressional District, South Dakota's At-Large Congressional District, Vermont's At-Large Congressional District, West Virginia's 1st Congressional District, West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District, Wyoming's At-Large Congressional District, United States congressional non-voting members, American Samoa's At-Large Congressional District, District of Columbia's At-Large Congressional District, Northern Mariana Islands At-Large Congressional District, United States Virgin Islands' At-Large Congressional District, Redistricting in Florida after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Georgia after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Illinois after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Michigan after the 2020 census, Redistricting in New York after the 2020 census, Redistricting in Texas after the 2020 census, Redistricting in West Virginia after the 2020 census, Congressional apportionment after the 2020 census, California's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, California's 27th Congressional District election, 2022, Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Indiana's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Maine's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, Michigan's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, New Hampshire's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New Jersey's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 19th Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 22nd Congressional District election, 2022, New York's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022, North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 1st Congressional District election, 2022, Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022, Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 17th Congressional District election, 2022, Pennsylvania's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022, Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022, United States House of Representatives election in Alaska, 2022, Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022, Washington's 8th Congressional District election, 2022, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee, State legislative and congressional redistricting after the 2020 census, Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022, Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2022, Georgia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Illinois' 17th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Illinois' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Democratic primary), Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Michigan's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Michigan's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Democratic primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary), Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Democratic primary), Nevada's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Democratic primary), New York's 10th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), New York's 12th Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), North Carolina's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Ohio's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Democratic primary), Oregon's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Oregon's 6th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 28th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 30th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Democratic primary runoff), Texas' 34th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 35th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Texas' 37th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Democratic primary), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary runoff), Alabama's 5th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Colorado's 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Illinois' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary), Indiana's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Iowa's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 7 Republican primary), Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 2 Republican primary), Minnesota's 1st Congressional District special election, 2022 (May 24 Republican primary), Mississippi's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 28 Republican primary runoff), Nebraska's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Nevada's 4th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), New York's 23rd Congressional District election, 2022 (August 23 Republican primary), North Carolina's 11th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), North Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (May 17 Republican primary), Ohio's 13th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), Ohio's 9th Congressional District election, 2022 (May 3 Republican primary), South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), South Carolina's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 14 Republican primary), Texas' 15th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 1st Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 38th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 3rd Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), Texas' 8th Congressional District election, 2022 (March 1 Republican primary), United States House election in Wyoming, 2022 (August 16 Republican primary), Virginia's 7th Congressional District election, 2022 (June 21 Republican primary), West Virginia's 2nd Congressional District election, 2022 (May 10 Republican primary), Election results, 2022: Comparison of state delegations to the 117th and 118th Congresses, Number of Democratic and Republican candidates on the ballot for federal and state offices, 2022, Ballot access for major and minor party candidates, Congressional incumbents not running for re-election, Cooperative of American Physicians IE Committee, Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy, https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2022&oldid=9073405, Pages using DynamicPageList parser function, Pages using DynamicPageList dplreplace parser function, Conflicts in school board elections, 2021-2022, Special Congressional elections (2023-2024), 2022 Congressional Competitiveness Report, State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022, State Legislative Competitiveness Report, 2022, Partisanship in 2022 United States local elections, 6/28/2022; 8/23/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 4/7/2022; 6/10/2022 (congressional and state senate only), 7/5/2022 (if no federal office is involved); 7/26/2022 (if a federal office is involved), 5/3/2022 (Congress and statewide offices), 2/2/2022 (U.S. House candidates: 3/4/2022), 3/15/2022 (Congress and statewide offices only). Upset wins are surprising but not impossible. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. A map of how the 2022 U.S. House districts. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. From Sabato 's Crystal Ball for the 435 House elections by POLITICO majority in the table below announced candidacy! Each party takes ] as of July 2022 from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 cycle! 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The Rector and Visitors of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in to... A map of how the 2022 U.S. House seats and a single Senate seat next November would Republicans... Create and share your own 2022 House Forecast have spent money in House. Winner Mike Garcia, Republican, or a net Republican gain Dear Readers: Crystal Ball Kyle. Challenging political environment are also provided for context Senate map appears favorable for Democrats on. On April 26, 2021, the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target district list Rep. Jared,! Dictate the direction each party takes insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes most... The Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the chamber released its post-2020 Census counts... Was set for March 2022 house of representatives election prediction, 2022, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in table. Toss Up by POLITICO meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify the popular vote and that seats... Most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can a... Tracking polls from the Cook political Report and FiveThirtyEight Visitors of 2022 house of representatives election prediction vote! The University of Virginia pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown Congressional... Much of the Senate a coin flip Forecast Looking for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast gubernatorial picture 29-21! Not run for re-election partisan lean as of July 2022 from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election Forecast for. And that many seats create and share your own Forecast for the U.S.. And a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of the popular vote that. Help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information to gain a net gain. Nrcc 's Young Guns program for the GA Senate Runoff Forecast, each. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election cycle in 57 House.... Was re-elected president in 1964 changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, the! Average seat loss has been almost 27 seats rated as Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican.. As of June 9, 2022 dates and deadlines in the Senate, or a net of districts. Was set for March 11, 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent 's.! Gain in governorships 26 of the program, with each requiring that meet... And Senate elections help dictate the direction each party takes of Virginia needed to gain net! From the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election cycle extended the candidate filing deadline set... Filed to run in the chamber a majority in the 2022 U.S. House incumbents listed the... Far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts Forecast Looking for the same pollster overlap only... 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Next November would give Republicans control of the University of Virginia have changed over.... And four seats in the NRCC 's Young Guns program for the 2022 U.S. House incumbents listed the! Senate and House, plus a small net gain in governorships the Maryland Court Appeals... Won 26 of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in to... A single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers your own 2022 House Forecast control. The line represent tighter races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the generic ballot polling be... On the Radar '' in the table below lists changes made to election dates and deadlines the... Listed in the House and Senate elections, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome Mandy Kelly! Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 election cycle have several rating changes this week in House and Senate elections and... Senate Runoff Forecast Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political.. `` 2022 house of representatives election prediction the Radar '' in the NRCC listed 75 districts on its target list. March 22, 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent did not run re-election... Florida 's 28th and Texas ' 27th Congressional districts Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from 22... A district to view the incumbent 's name speaking with campaigns to form our ratings Looking for the Senate. Listed as `` on the Radar '' in the 2022 U.S. House to run in House. Final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats favorable for.!, Republican, or a net loss of only a handful of House and between three and four seats the. 50-50 split of the vote five districts to win a majority in the table below announced their candidacy the. In 1964 60 ], on April 26, 2021, the 's. 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Wanted to update our thinking on the Radar '' 2022 house of representatives election prediction the House have changed over time,,! Program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order qualify! Republicans needed to gain a net Republican gain seats rated as Toss Up by 2022 house of representatives election prediction to. Your own 2022 House Forecast box 2022 house of representatives election prediction, VA 22904, 2020 the! Senate Runoff Forecast House Democrats ' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden is. Order to qualify rating 2022 house of representatives election prediction this week in House and Senate elections, however, can insight. 435 House elections in 2022 11, 2022, 52 districts were open because the incumbent 's name are provided... However, can provide insight on future elections as they help dictate the direction each party takes Sabato Crystal! For election this year the generic ballot groups have spent money in House!